Bitcoin has been relatively stable over the last 2 weeks after its sharp price drop that began around September 21st. At that time, BTC was valued at just over $10,000 and looked to be closing in on the $11,000 mark. It then proceeded to drop over a 5-day period to just over $8,000 on September 26th. Since then, we have not seen much movement aside from the October 6th scare when BTC fell to $7885 and then recovered to above $8,000 the next day.
New predictions show that BTC is set for a drop below $8,000 where it will remain for a short time before beginning to rise back up to over $8,000 and start to head towards the $10,000 mark. However, over the next month or so the truth is that it could go either way.
What about BTC’s long term outlook?
Depending on which side of the fence you are on (long-term BTC investor or short-term trader), BTC’s future is a mixed bag. In the short term, we are looking at a possible drop with price resistance barriers, but in the long term there is no reason why the $100,000 mark is unrealistic. Beyond this, we could very well be looking at $1 million per BTC as predicted by the likes of Chamath Palihapitiya and Wences Casares, which we will cover later in this blog.
However, to begin with, let’s look at the short term and latest price news from FX Street and Coindesk before looking at some of the world’s most successful individuals who believe in the rise of BTC to stardom.
It is a risky time for traders and investors alike because there appear to be varied opinions out there right now. For example, FX Street are predicting growth on the condition that there is a break past the Fibo resistance thus “paving the way for gains above the next hurdle of $8,400”.
Currently, BTC is stuck between $8,328 and $8,415 with not much budge at this time. If it can get past this resistance marker and head above the $8,415 point, then we are looking at BTC stabilizing at the $8,800 mark. FX Street has warned that even getting past the aforementioned resistance mark does not guarantee a rise to the $8,800 marker simply because more resistance at the $8,501 and $8,673 mark is likely.
The bad news is that BTC could also fall the other way and end up as low as $7,811. If we are to go by FX Street, then it is a risky time to trade with 5% swings likely in either direction. It is a gamble at best because even the experts at FC Street can’t tell which way the market is likely to swing.
On a less positive note, Coindesk has predicted that BTC is heading for a bear run even though it has survived its technical resistance level. Despite the MA line being crossed on several occasions, the drops were only brief as BTC managed to recover. In layman’s terms, BTC has dropped to below $8,000 over the course of the last 2 weeks but quickly recovered.
It came close on September 29th at $8,077 and it closed at $7885 on October 6th. The following day BTC recovered and has sat at its resistance marker of between $8,328 and $8,415 since October 12th, so 3 days running so far. We are likely to see small swings in value over the next few days while waiting for another volatile period which Coindesk predict is on the horizon.
Unlike FX Street, Coindesk seems to be in the decline corner of the ring with FX Street largely remaining noncommittal as to which way BTC will go.
At the moment BTC is above its 20-day moving average (MA), but Coindesk’s MA measurements show that over the last 200 days it falls short of its moving average while weekly, as well as daily averages, suggest there is a drop to below $8,000 coming.
Weighing up Coindesk’s ability to predict a drop, we are looking at 4 indicators (200-day, 20-day, weekly, and daily) moving average and only one out of four is positive, which scream decline. If we were to put a percentage on this, it’s 75% negative and 25% positive all things considered.
If you were a betting man, the house edge right now is 75%, which doesn’t make for good odds.
There are some interesting theories out there in regard to where Bitcoin will be over the next decade and even up to the 22nd century. After researching some BTC price predictions focusing more on the ‘now’, we stumble across an interesting article by Bitcoinprice.
Chamath Palihapitiya literally plays music to your ears when he states that he thinks each BTC will be worth at least $1 million by 2037. If only we could 100% agree with this prediction! Buy 2 BTC and you could consider retirement. Mr Palihapitiya is a firm supporter of BTC and started to invest way back in 2012 when the much-esteemed crypto was only worth around $100 per coin.
He says that BTC will be worth $100,000 within the next 3 to 4 years on its way up to the $1 million milestone. His reasoning is that it will be comparable to gold as it gives people a better alternative to banking and autocratic regimes that are currently not working as they should be. In short, as the banking system collapses and countries run up huge debts versus their GDP, BTC will remain unaffected by any sudden drops in fiat currency value. Maybe he is onto something!
Wences Casares also believe BTC will be worth $1 million. Another guy we like a lot and would love for him to be correct along with Chamath Palihapitiya. The CEO of Xapo is also a board member at PayPal, which still begs the questions as to why PayPal has not climbed on the crypto ladder. Nevertheless, his confidence in BTC is high and says that it will hit the $1 million mark 10 years (2027) before Chamath Palihapitiya’s 2037 valuation prediction.
John Pfeffer, a partner in Pfeffer Capital, is not far off both Palihapitiya and Casares’s predictions of $1 million. Instead, he predicts BTC will be worth $700,000 at some point. Unlike his two co-supporters of BTC, Pfeffer has not placed a firm date on his prediction, but like Palihapitiya, he has compared it to the value of gold. He believes BTC could replace investor gold simply because it is much easier to store BTC than gold bars.
His line of thought makes some sense because currently there is around $1.6 trillion worth of gold stored by investors who need something other than paper fiat currency to reply on. Eventually, there will be 18 million Bitcoin in circulation, which would be $88,888 per BTC. From here on up, BTC will just get stronger. It’s a nice way of looking at things, but whether this prediction is realistic remains to be seen. Either way, we like it, but as a betting man, he says the odds of this happening are around 8%.
John McAfee and Jeremy Liew have more conservative predictions but still both just exciting as the last three. Both are confident that BTC will hot the half a million mark ($500,000) with McAfee predicting this to happen as soon as 2020, which is highly unlikely but would be amazing if it did. He also said that BTC will go up to around $2.6 million eventually!
Let’s face it, Mr McAfee has a rather illustrious reputation, so we’ll just bag that prediction for the time being and hope he is right. On the other hand, Jeremy Liew has a more realistic expectation in terms of time as he believes BTC will hit the dizzy half mill mark by 2030. His prediction was also echoed by the CEO of Blockchain Peter Smith, which was the first crypto wallet made available making this section effectively three predictions in one.
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We know that BTC has the potential to reach $100,000 over the next 5 years despite the current crypto winter holding us back at this time. It stands to reason because BTC was only worth $100 a few years ago, and it is now sitting at just over $8,000. Even a drop to $7,000 is not much cause for concern because this is still an 8,000% rise in value from 10 years ago.
If another 8,000% rise came over the next 10 years, then BTC will be worth far more than any of the above predictions. When we look at it this way, making $500,000 and $1 million price hikes does not seem as far fetched as some might think. Certainly in the short term, we are looking at slow peaks and troughs, but as for the future, things are looking very bright indeed.
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